2020-2030 The rising tide

While much has been written about the ongoing naval buildup in South East Asia as a response to China, almost nobody has focused on a similar buildup going on in South Asia as the subcontinent’s economies mature enough to build and maintain larger naval forces. This buildup is also interesting as the buildup of the Indian Navy is primarily a byproduct of a rapidly expanding economy coupled with the need to maintain its primacy in the Indian Ocean Region, whereas the Pakistani buildup is designed to contain & frustrate the Indian Navy. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka & Bangladesh are both stepping into uncharted waters by planning to operate larger vessels which they haven’t done as yet & grow from semi-green water navies to true green water navies.

INS Trikand enters Haifa Israel ,the Indian Navy is acquiring another four vessels of this class.

The Indian navy has a long term plan to grow from a 137 ship navy presently to a 200 ship navy by 2027. This plan is currently under implementation with at least 59 vessels under construction in various yards for delivery in the 2020-30 time period. Another 55 vessels are at the tendering stage and orders for the same should be awarded in some time. The aforesaid 59 vessels already ordered include 1 indigenous aircraft carrier, 3 Scorpene conventional submarines (3 delivered pre-2020), 4 nuclear missile carrying submarines (2 delivered pre 2020), 4 P15B class destroyers, at least 4 Talwar class frigates, 7 P17A Class frigates, 2 Missile range instrumentation vessels and 5 new offshore patrol vessels. The Indian Navy will be adding airpower as well and programs for the induction of 57 new fighter aircraft, 15 new MPA and some 260 odd helicopters are already in progress with orders for 24 MH60R Helicopters & another 4 P8I MPA having already been placed. Discussion on a deal for the acquisition of 22 Sea Guardian Maritime surveillance drones from the US is also well underway. These ships &aircraft once delivered will provide a substantial augmentation to the firepower of the Indian Navy.

Type 054A FFG like being acquired by Pakistan

The Pakistan Navy has also begun its own program of naval growth. Most recently the Pakistan Navy signed a deal in late 2015 to purchase 8 Chinese S20 AIP equipped submarines with all being delivered by 2026. Apart from this Pakistan is also buying 4 054A Frigates from China and another 4 fast attack craft still remain in discussion .Pakistan is also purchasing some 4 ADA MILGEM class corvettes from Turkey while acquiring 2 OPVs from DAMEN in Denmark and 2 OPVs from Swift ships in the USA. These acquisitions will ensure the Pakistan navy maintains a very credible force level of eleven modern submarines and eight frigates all the way to 2030 & give it its first ever force of corvettes and OPVs. Pakistan is also planning on augmenting its maritime aircraft force levels with the induction of modern MPAs and JF-17 fighter aircraft as well.

Ex PLAN Ming Class SSK now serving with Bangladesh Navy as BNS NABJATRA

The Bangladesh and SriLankan Navies are also working on their own expansion plans. The Bangladeshi navy has a well chalked out growth plan called forces 2030 under which they will be acquiring 2 more type56 corvettes from China while also looking to Chinese yards for support with building 6 frigates. The Bangladesh navy submarines corps is still in its infancy having just acquired its first 2 MING class SSKs from China nevertheless plans for expanding this into a six submarine fleet with the addition of 4 more KILO or CHANG-BOGO class SSKs is in discussion. The Sri Lankan Navy has a much more modest expansion plan lined up with the induction of one Ex USNAVY Hamilton class cutter and an ex PLAN Type 53 Frigate being the only vessels lined up for now, though there have been earlier reports of the Sri Lankan Navy looking at a possible acquisition of one or two Gepard 5.1 class frigates from Russia.

Myanmar Navy Kyan Sittha Class FFG -UMS Sinbyushin

An often ignored factor at least in the Bay of Bengal is the Myanmar Navy. The Myanmarese have embarked on their own Naval expansion program & have in fact acquired a complete Shipbuilding facility from China in the late 1990's. Myanmar has since gone ahead and built three indigenous missile armed frigates and have detailed plans to build another five ships of the Kyan Sittha Class.

Myanmar has also become the first navy in the region (Beating India as well here) in acquiring a brand new LPD capability with the acquisition of a single Makassar class LPD from South Korea christened the UMS Mottama , now the largest vessel in the Myanmar Navy.

A Robust Submarine capability is also being acquired with the acquisition of a KILO class submarine from India to be followed up by two new KILO Class boats acquired from Russia.

Suffice to say that the Indian subcontinental region will soon witness a large and unprecedented naval buildup of Regional Navies complementing the rise of economies in the region. While this would create more challenges for opposing navies as in the Arabian Sea, in the Bay of Bengal and Northern Indian Ocean this growth would be more benign and complementary as most of the navies here are loosely allied to one another. This should overall help in increasing the security of merchant vessels passing through regional waters and help to control piracy in the waters around the horn of Africa.

MY 0.02 ON THE HAPPENINGS IN THE DEFENCE SPHERE TODAY-PART 2

1)      SSKs TO BE PRIORATIZED BEFORE CVNs.

-          GOOD MOVE, THIS IS SOMETHING I HAD BEEN BATTING FOR A LONG TIME.

-          WILL HELP THE IN REPLAN CAPEX, THE $20BN ESTIMATED COST OF THE CVN WOULD HAVE LEFT NO MONEY FOR OTHER PURCHASES IN THE IMMEDIATE.

-          THE PENINSULA COMMAND PLAN WILL LIKELY TAKE AWAY THE NEED OF A THIRD CARRIER  BY ALLOCATING BOTH OPERATIONAL CBGS TO AN OCEANIC COMMAND WHILE LAND BASED FIGHTER AIRCRAFT CAN PROVIDE RAPID AIR COVER TO ANY NAVAL FORCE IN THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA.

-          MORE SSKs WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE FAVOUR OF THE INDIAN NAVY IN ANY FUTURE CONFLICT IN WAYS A CV COULD NOT, IN BOTH THE 1965 & 71 WARS THE IN HAD TO SPEND INORDINATE ASSETS GUARDING CVS FROM OPFOR SSKs. HAVING A LARGE MODERN FORCE OF SSKs ALONGWITH A LARGE FLEET OF SUBMARINE HUNTING CGS AND AIRCRAFT COULD HELP US MAINTAIN SUPERIOROTY UNDER THE SURFACE.

-          IN VIEW OF THE BANGLADESH, INDONESIA AND PAKISTAN NAVIES MOVING AHEAD WITH SUBMARINE ACQUISISTON PLANS IT IS IMPERATIVE THE NUMBER OF MODERN SSKS IN THE IN KEEPS PACE TO MAINTAIN OUR DOMINANCE.

-          THE IMPETUS ON REDUCING COST MAKES IT MOST LIKELY THE SUBMARINE SELECTED FOR P75I WILL MOST LIKELY BE EITHER THE SCORPENE OR THE AMUR AS THE SCORPENE SHOULD BE ABLE TO USE IT’S EXISITNG BASE OF SUPPLIER TO REDUCE PRODUCTION COSTS & MATCH HORNS WITH THE  RUSSIAN AMUR SERIESWHICH  IS POSSIBLY THE CHEAPEST OF THE COMPETITORS.

2)      ATHOS ARTILLERY GUN PRODUCTION WITH BHARAT FORGE(THOUGH OTHER MEDIA MENTIONED OFB)

-          NOT A POSITIVE GIVEN THAT BHARAT FORGE ALREADY HAS CLEARED INDIAN ARMY TRIALS WITH THE BHARAT-52 155/52 GUN.

-          THIS INDICATES THAT THE INDIAN ARMY HAS LIKELY CHOSEN THE ATHOS OVER THE BHARAT -52 ON ACCOUNT OF IT’S LIGHTER WEIGHT AT 13 TONNES COMPARED TO 15 FOR THE KSSL GUN.

-          WOULD ALSO INDICATE THIS PURCAHE IS BEING UNDERTAKEN WITH ECONOMIC COSTS & GEOPOLITICAL OBJECTIVES WRT THE INDIA ISRAEL EQUATION IN MIND.

-          THE ONLY POSITIVE HERE IS THAT IT WILL GIVE BABA KALYANI A CHANCE TO PROVE HIS CLAIM THAT HE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD ONE ARTILLERY GUN EVERY 2^ND DAY.GIVE KSSL A CHANCE TO COMPLETELY UPSTAGE THE OFB AS THE PERMIER 155/52GUN FACTORY IN INDIA.

-          LIKELY LINES UP THE MOUNTED ARTILLERY COMPETITON INTO A TWO HORSE RACE BETWEEN THE BHARAT FORGE 155/52 GUN & THE ATMOS2000 WHICH IS ON OFFER IN A JV WITH KSSL.

3)      TRANCHE PURCHASE OF FIGHTER AIRCRAFT

-          INDICATES EITHER G2G IMPORTS WHICH NEGATE ANY MAKE IN INDIA COMPONENT OR PRODUCTION AT A FACILITY THAT ALREADY EXISTS BECAUSE IT WILL NOT BE FINANCIALLY VIABLE FOR ANY MANUFACTURER TO BUILD AN ECOSYSTEM IN INDIA WITHOUT THE CONFIRMATION OF FUTURE TRANCHES.

-          THIS BASICALLY CONFIRMS THAT THE FUTURE MMRCA IS MOST LIKELY TO BE THE RAFALE AS DASSAULT HAS ALREADY ACQUIRED A FACILITY WHERE IT HAS ALREADY BEGUN PRODUCTION OF SOME PARTS OF RAFALE AS CONFIRMED BY MEDIA A FEW DAYS AGO.

https://theprint.in/defence/india-begins-manufacturing-parts-for-rafale-fighter-jets-in-nagpur/363702/

MY 0.02 ON THE HAPPENINGS IN THE DEFENCE SPHERE IN INDIA TODAY- PART 1

1)      PENINSULA THEATRE COMMAND TO BE FORMED.

-GOOD MOVE THAT BASICALLY TURNS THE ENTIRETY OF PENINSULAR INDIA INTO ONE THEATRE OF BATTLE.

-THIS WILL LIKELY INDICATE THIS COMMAND WILL MAKE USE OF THE PENINSULA   AS ONE GIANT AIRCRAFT CARRIER WITH IAF & IN GROUND BASED COMBAT AIRCRAFT LIKE P8I & THE RECENTLY INDUCTED BRAHMOS EQUIPPED SU30 SQUADRON AT THANJAVUR FORMING THE TIP OF A SPEAR.

-THIS THEATRE WILL LIKELY DOMINATE BOTH THE ARABIAN SEA & BAY OF BENGAL USING LAND BASED ASSETS BACKED UP BY A LARGE FLEET OF CONVENTIONAL SUBMARINES, CORVETTES & POSSIBLY A FEW OLDER FRIGATES AND DESTROYERS. OLDER LPDS LIKE THE JALASHWA WILL LIKELY BE DEPUTED TO THIS COMMAND AS WELL.

-THIS COMMAND WILL ALSO LIKELY CONTROL THE COASTAL RADAR NETWORK &THE INVENTORY OF SHORE BASED ASCM LAUNCHERS WHICH WILL SERVE AS its EYES & IT’S SPEARS.

CHANGES THE WAY THE IN WILL GO TO WAR FROM ONE BASED ON THE SURFACE OF THE SEA TO ONE BASED ON THE SURFACE OF LAND AS WELL.

-THIS INDICATES THAT THE FUTURE PURCHASES OF THE IN GEARED TOWARDS THIS COMMAND WILL BE CHEAPER SHORTER RANGED SSKs & MISSILE ARMED CORVETTES.

- THIS ALSO POINTS TOWARDS AN OCEANIC COMMAND (INDO PACIFIC) COMING UP AS THE 2^ND IN COMMAND IN THE NEAR FUTURE WHICH WILL TAKE THE RESPONSIBILITY OF GUARDING THE SLOCs AND DISTANT FOREIGN OUTPOSTS LIKE ONE’S IN MAURITIUS & OMAN. THIS FORCE WILL LIKELY BE EQUIPPED WITH TWO CBGS COMPOSED OF THE BULK OF THE DDG ,FFG & REPLENISHMENT VESSLES  IN THE NEAR TERM ALONGWITH THE ENTIRETY OF THE IN SSBN & SSN FORCE.

2)      AIR DEFENCE COMMAND FOR INDIA COMING UP.

-GOOD MOVE THAT BASICALLY COMBINES MULTIPLE TIERS OF RADARS & SURFACE TO AIR INTERDICTION ASSETS INTO ONE NET. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN PARTIALLY REALIZED VIA THE IACCS NODES WHICH TIE MULTIPLE MILITARY & CIVILIAN RADAR INTO ONE NET &TAKES IT ONE STEP FURTHER BY PUTTING ALL SURFACE BASED INTERDICTION ASSETS FROM THE BMD UNITS TO THE SPAAG UNITS UNDER ONE COMMAND. LIKELY TO HELP CREATE A BETTER INTERCEPTION PACKAGE WITH OVERLAPPING ARCS OF FIRE.

-WHILE THE EARLIER IACCS & AFNET PLAN TIED TOGETHER PRIMARLY AIR FORCE DEFENSE RADARS WITH CIVILIAN RADAR THIS COMMAND WILL ALSO TIE INTO A VAST NETWORK OF RADARS OPERATED BY THE ARMY &THE NAVY LIKE THE EXCELLENT MFSTARS ON BOARD THE KOLKATA & OTHER DDGS TO HELP CREATE A MUCH MORE DETAILED PICTURE.

-SIMILARLY THIS COMMAND WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD A MUCH BETTER INTERCEPTION NETWORK UTILIZING ARMY ORGANIC SAM ASSETS & NAVAL SAM UNITS IN CONJUCTION WITH EXISITNG AIR FORCE SAM UNITS.

-THIS COMMAND WILL LIKELY ALSO BE THE HEADQUARTERS FOR A SPACE DEFENCE & A BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENCE CORPS.

3)      J&K TO BE SEPARATE THEATRE.

-     GOOD MOVE THAT LETS VARIOUS MILITARY UNITS IN JAMMU & KASHMIR BE FORMED INTO ONE INTEGRATED UNIT.

-      THIS WILL LIKELY REDUCE RESPONSE TIMES & ALLOW REQUIRED ASSETS TO REALLOCATED TO AREAS WHERE THEY ARE REQUIRED MUCH FASTER THAN THEY ARE TODAY. THIS COMMAND SHOULD BE ABLE TO SURGE TROOPS & EQUIPMENT QUICKLY IN AREAS WHERE REQUIRED WITHOUT HAVING TO GO THROUGH MULTIPLE COMMAND LAYERS.

REBUILDING THE SHIELD

REBUILDING THE SHIELD

If we lose the war in the air we lose the war and lose it quickly.

— Field Marshall Bernard Montgomery

The slumbering defense establishment of India was jolted awake on December 17, 1995 when a Russian AN-26 plane with a Latvian crew and passengers that included a British arms dealer and a Danish smuggler flew over West Bengal, dropped 2,500 AK-47 rifles and 1,500,000 rounds of ammunition over five villages in the Purulia district and flew off to Thailand. Though these men were later arrested when they attempted to fly a return flight to Europe using Indian airspace, the very fact that a slow lumbering cargo plane had managed to airdrop such a large cache of weapons without getting detected by Indian air force units was a wakeup call to the military & a massive embarrassment for the Indian air force & the then INC India govt under PV Narasimha Rao.

The massive gap in air defense & Radar that the Purulia arms drop exposed meant that our shield was broken & that if India had to enter into a major conflict large swathes of territory would be free game for enemy aircraft to come & go at will. This was the catalyst that kick started a multi decade long plan to upgrade & augment the Radar Detection & SAM interdiction capabilities of the IAF. The first thing done was to look at improving and augmenting the radar coverage; the INDRA radar developed by the LRDE (Electronics & radar development establishment) in the 1980’s was upgraded to the INDRA 2 & deployed. India also approached Israel with a proposal to buy multiple units of the Arrow Anti-ballistic missile defence system in 1999. A purchase of the entire system was denied by the US which was a major partner in the project , however India did managed to procure two units of the “Green Pine” High power AESA Radar from Israel. These initial steps have now given rise to the Indigenous “Swordfish “AESA that lies at the core of our BMD. One unit of the Swordfish has been deployed as per media reports dated 2015. The LRDE also developed the ROHINI 3D Central acquisition radar which is currently under acquisition.

In 2010 the Indian air force formally inaugurated operations of the AFNET & IACCS. This system was in development or over a decade & now interlinks all civilian and military radars including AWACS to provide air defence commanders with a real time multi layered picture detailing civilian and military aircraft movement throughout India & much of the subcontinent as well. The Indian Air Force has already established 5 IACCS nodes in the western sector facing Pakistan at Barnala (Punjab), Wadsar (Gujarat), Aya Nagar (Delhi), Jodhpur (Rajasthan) and Ambala (Haryana). Four new major nodes and 10 new sub-nodes are in the process of being raised under Phase-II of the IACCS project. While 3 nodes will be deployed in eastern, central and southern India, the fourth is meant for the strategically-located Andaman and Nicobar Islands archipelago in the Bay of Bengal, watching over Malacca Strait. 

While augmenting its surveillance capabilities the IAF was well aware that it had only resolved part of the puzzle, the question of interdiction of any hostile aircraft these radars would detect would mean newer and better air defence missiles & guns would be required as well. The workhorse of the IAF Sam fleet then was the SA-3 Gammon which with its 35km range was simply outclassed by the 4&4+ Gen aircraft then being acquired by our opposition. The IAF then embarked on a plan to develop & acquire an entirely new series of SAMs more suited to modern combat which led to the Akash program being sped up. The Indian military also acquired the SPYDER LLQRM from Israel while ordering AKASH SAM units from BDL. A national BMD development program was also started by DRDO alongside JV programs for air defense missiles with MBDA of Europe and IAI OF Israel. The Israeli JV developed the MRSAM system 18 units of which are currently on order. While these entire Surface to Air missile programs would be able to intercept airborne threats at the medium to short range the lack of capability for a long range intercept was still present. The option of the S400 was brought in to counter this deficiency.

In October 2015 India formally announced an intention to purchase the S400 system from Russia as a direct deal, though the initial requirement for 12 such systems was pared down to only 5 on account of costs. On 05/10/2018 Prime Minister Modi of India and President Putin of Russia signed in a deal that will see Russia supply 5 units of the strategic Air defense missile system S400 delivered to India for use by the Indian Air Force starting 2020. This system along with the BARAK 8 (deliveries from 2020) will in many ways usher in a paradigm shift for the IAF which till date has utilized surface to air missiles as mere point and area defense weapons with maximum ranges of engagement from 18 to 45km. There is some information from CASIS about a possible transfer to India of two S200 class 150km ranged missile systems in 1989 but without official acknowledgement it is safe to assume the IAF cannot engage airborne targets form the ground at greater than 45km ranges as on date.

The S400 system will give the SAM crews in the IAF “strategic” reach & for the first time allow a SAM system to be used as an offensive asset instead of a simple defensive weapon. This will mean that now a SAM crew sitting in Ambala will be able to kill a ZDK-03 AWACS or an IL-78 tanker of the PAF flying over Islamabad if called upon to do so using the 40N6 missile. However the 40N6 is a strategic weapon & will not be used regularly. The 48N6, 9M96E2 &9M96E missiles of the S400 will be the workhorse missiles & do most of the heavy lifting defending Indian airspace from arrange of 40-240km.

 The S400 system coupled with the “SWORDFISH” BMD radar and AAD+PAD combo will also give India a multi layered anti-ballistic missile defence capability & should form the core of our national Air defence for a number of decades to come. This formidable system will be the tip of the sword for the IAF air defense and the longest ranged anti-aircraft asset in a multilayered air defense network comprising of the indigenous BMD system, S400, MRSAM, AKASH & SPYDER apart from older assets like the SA-3 & OSA SAM systems. Apart from recent media reports about the possible acquisition of an American NASAMS2 system an indigenous QRSAM & LRSAM called XRSAM are in the works as well. India is also upgrading its entire arsenal of AAA guns with modern fire control radar & electro -optical target acquisition systems.

It is safe to say that with the acquisition of the S400 we are close to achieving the near zero gap air defence coverage which we had planned for since the 1990’s Purulia airdrop Incident. Our skies have never been this secure.

 

This image shows a representational layered air defense coverage that can be achieved on the western front with

1)      1x Swordfish LRTR based between Jaipur & Delhi (Red Circle)

2)      3x S400 batteries based close to Bhuj, Bikaner & Dharamsala(Blue Circles)

3)      9x BARAK-8 MRSAM batteries based close to Kandla, Jodhpur, Jaisalmer, Sirsa, Bikaner, Jalandhar, Chandigarh, Dharamsala & Leh.(Green Circles)

4)      1x NASAMS 2 battery based in Delhi (Yellow Circle)

 

his image shows a representational layered air defense coverage that can be achieved on the eastern front with

5)      1x Swordfish LRTR based close to Sahibganj (Red Circle)

6)      2x S400 batteries based close to Jorhat & Darbhanga(Blue Circles)

7)      12x AKASH SRSAM batteries based close to Kolkata, Durgapur, Kharaghpur, Silchar, Shillong, Siliguri, Gangtok, Hashimara, Tawang, Tezpur & Tinsukhia.

Breaking the String

 

Map showing position of major military bases in the Indian Ocean Region

In 2005 the US firm Booze Allen Hamilton came up with the “string of pearls” hypothesis, which postulated that China will try to expand its naval presence by building civilian maritime infrastructure along the Indian Ocean periphery.

The raison d'être for this “String” is China’s utter dependence on Mideast oil, all of which must be shipped to China via the IOR .This Oil must pass through the major Chokepoints of the  Strait of Mandeb, the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Lombok Strait any of which can be clocked by a potential adversary in order to starve the Chinese Economy and Military of Fuel required to operate.

It is to counter this major Handicap that China Started building the “string” which loosely put is a set of 8 bases/ports in the Indian Ocean region where forward based Chinese forces will be able to respond swiftly to ensure no such blockade can be imposed. The key bases in the Vicinity of India with an explicit military purpose are

1)      Gwadar, Pakistan occupied Baluchistan

2)      Multiple airstrips in the Maldives

3)      Djibouti, Africa

4)      Coco Islands, Myanmar

Apart from these there are ports being built by the Chinese in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Sudan and Tanzania which may or may not be used for military purposes depending on the Host government’s insistence.

 

Gwadar port in Pakistan occupied Baluchistan- Soon to be a PLAN Marines base

India for its part needs to counter this strategy by building a credible A2/AD capability to ensure the Chinese Bases are easily neutralized and the primacy of the Indian Navy remains unchallenged in the IOR. In order to do this we must learn from the Chinese in how they on their end successfully implemented an A2/AD strategy Vis a Vis the USN. While this stratagem was primarily designed by the PLAN to deter a conventional American CBG/Task force from supporting Taiwanese/ South East Asian militaries in the case of a conflict over Taiwan/ South China Sea. It is imperative that we learn from it and adapt it to create a counter A2/AD strategy designed to deter a PLAN task force from entering the IOR (in the case of hostilities). This stratagem can also be adapted to render all surface assets of the PN Obsolete.

“The success of any major operation or campaign depends on the free movement
of one’s forces in the theater. Without the ability to conduct large-scale movements
on land, at sea, and in the air, operational warfare is essentially an empty concept.”
-Dr. Milan Vego
For long warfare has been about two basic types of strategy
1) Total domination/ Sea Control/ Air space supremacy.
2) Guerilla warfare/ Sea Denial/ Air space denial.

The People’s Republic of China has added a new fact in the form of their A2/AD stratagem. It basically means that while the Chinese military recognizes its deficiencies and acknowledges the very real threat Chinese forces face from American carrier based and land based airpower nevertheless the Chinese shall deny the Americans the freedom to utilize their carriers in any future conflict.
Any A2/AD capability can be divided into two broad categories of assets

a) Diplomatic assets friendly bases/ allies/shared Intel

b) Military assets these can further be subdivided into
1) Detection-Sensors/radars/Intel assets
2) Interdiction-Missiles/ships/submarines/aircraft i.e. operational military assets

PM Modi on the inauguration of the Indian Radar surveillance system in the Seychelles

 

Friendly Bases for the IN in the IOR (other than those on the Indian Mainland)

 

Assumption Island the Indian Navy's own Island Airbase in the Southern Indian Ocean

Diplomatic Assets- The Indian Ocean Region is Ringed by nations that have  had a deep civilizational connect with India , However Cultural and civilizational connect does not add up to leverage unless we are willing to loosen purse strings to buy influence and access into the region. India slept on this critical requirement for the last three decades (the last time we saw India exercise her muscles in the IOR was during the Rajiv Era Operation Cactus). In recent Years However we have seen India lease two Islands from Mauritius and Seychelles to develop our own set of South Indian Ocean Bases.The Work on these bases “Agalega” & “Assumption” is in progress and in a few years we shall also have a fully functional Airbase on Assumption Island in the Seychelles. India Also maintains a listening post in Madagascar and has extensive defense cooperation and Berthing rights for Naval Vessels in Oman & the UAE. India is also working towards development of Trincomalee Harbour in Sri Lanka and Chahbahar in Iran as Naval Bases to Help Control and monitor the Flow of shipping in the IOR. India has also just started to nurture a Security relationship with Kenya, Tanzania and Indonesia. India also has the option of asking for limited logistical access to US bases in the region most notable being the secretive Base at Diego Garcia.

That said as said earlier we will need to buy influence and support these nations in their developmental tasks in order to retain and grow these relationships into the future. China is slowly pulling Tanzania and Djibouti into Debt traps with 10$Bn AND 14$bn of investment just as it has put the Sri Lankans in a spot with Hambantota. India needs to help her allies out of such debt traps by ensuring cheap credit which will help them pay off such crippling loans.

The P8I is undoubtedly the best Sub hunting aircraft in Asia.

Military Assets-The First thing to be looked at and strengthened is obviously assets that shall let us detect OPFOR fleet movements in the IOR. Space based assets are an important part of any modern ELINT network and in the last few decades the Chinese have set up an impressive array of assets designed to detect Fleet movements from space. This is primarily based on three complementing sets of “Yaogan “Satellites 36 of which have been launched. These satellites are basically of three types SAR satellites, Optical imagery remote sensing satellites and Ocean reconnaissance satellites. Recently the Chinese have also launched three large area ocean electronic surveillance satellites. While we too have a rudimentary capability already deployed in the shape of the CARTOSAT series and the RISAT series, we however need to build & launch many more similar satellites and put in place a complete Orbiting ELINT system comprehensively covering the Indian Ocean before we can develop a detection capability rivaling the Chinese net over the South China Sea. We have however developed one of the most modern & robust airborne surveillance fleets with the P8I, Do-228 & IL-38SD aircraft looking out for threats over our seas. That said with only 12 P8I on the cards we need to acquire at least 12 more to ensure constant surveillance of our maritime borders.

The second key aspect of a proper detection system is RADAR coverage the Chinese have deployed a number of large OTH B and OTH SW(Surface wave)radars to cover the South & East China Sea and we can expect to see OTH radars deployed in Tibet to give the Chinese a bird’s eye view of Aviation in India soon enough. We need to develop or acquire OTH radars and deploy them along our coastline and in “Fortress Andaman” if we are ever to detect incursions into the IOR region in real time. The power of such Radar can be gauged from the fact that the Russian “Container” system if deployed at Chandigarh would be able to detect Aircraft landing and taking off at Tehran Airport, the whole of Pakistani airspace would be under constant surveillance rendering the idea of surprise assaults like carried out by the PAF in 65 Obsolete. We need to build such a system in collaboration with Russia or even the Iranians who are already well into deploying such an OTH radar called Sepehr.

Coverage granted by only two KONTAINER OTH radars if installed in India.

The Third and Final key to building a complete detection capability is by sensing underwater craft. The Chinese have already completed in Lingshui, Hainan Province the detection and analysis centre for a large fixed undersea network of Hydrophones that shall let them listen in on American and other Submarines operating in the South and East China Seas, the Chinese have also followed this up with the building and deployment of a large number of aerial and surface based Submarine detection and hunting assets. The primary role of the PLAN SSK fleet is to act as final detection asset and the spear protecting this shield as well. The SSN and SSBN fleets are however designed to operate far from home. There is no current danger here unlike in the case of OTH Radars that the Chinese shall deploy such an Array in the IOR as well .We however need to build up a similar Array in the IOR to detect submarine threats operating on both our western and eastern seaboard, we shall also need to deploy a deep sea array around the Malacca’s to ensure that PLAN submarines cannot operate in the IOR with impunity. In April 2016 Reports started emerging indicating that India was in an advanced stage of discussions regarding installation of an extension of the US ”Fish Hook” Submarine detection array into the Indian Ocean. Japan had reportedly agreed to fund much of the Hydrophone array stretching from Chennai to Port Blair, exact status on this secretive project remains unclear though.

Rumored Hydrophone array position

Mere detection is only part of the Puzzle and we also need to augment our forces to be able to tackle the superior numbers of vessels the PLAN can unleash in the case of any conflict. Once again we must learn from our adversaries on how they tackled the threat of a technologically and numerically advanced USN using Island bases, Land based Anti-shipping missiles & a large number of comparatively cheaper and easier to build SSK’s and Missile boats.
India needs to start work on turning the Andaman islands into an unsinkable carrier and a fortress that will impede any PLAN force from entering into the IOR as I had written on DFI earlier we need to take lessons from Taiwan on making the islands impregnable using a network of underground island airbases equipped with SU-30 & LCA, interlinked Radars and long range Anti-ship missile batteries (Brahmos (450km& 800km versions).
http://defenceforumindia.com/building-fortress-andaman-lessons-taiwan-2074

The Indian Navy has planned for a 200 ship navy by 2027, The PLAN operates some 14 nuclear Submarines &57 SSK’s today this number will only increase as the years go by. Apart from these The PLAN operates some 496 Combat vessels and 232 auxiliaries as on date. The Indian Navy has planned to deploy a 6SSBN+6SSN+20 SSK fleet by 2030 to counter the subsurface threat posed by the PLAN. However much of this fleet will be formed by 8 ageing kilo class boats well past their prime, we should extend the Scorpene line to 10 boats while simultaneously starting work to ensure the P75I can be completed on time. That said I stand by my earlier assessment that the IN would do well to buy 10 Improved KILO boats off the shelf while pursuing development of an indigenous SSK capability.
We cannot match the PLAN fleet if we keep concentrating on major vessels alone as these will take time to build. I believe the Indian Navy needs to start work on a cheap capable oceangoing corvette class that can be inducted in large numbers. I personally believe we will need at least 60 corvettes divided into six flotillas of ten each. So as to form a numerically large skirmisher force to harass or deter OPFOR operations in the IOR. Israel has just started construction of the SA’AR 6 class corvettes at a cost of only 120$Mn each. These vessels will be armed with 32 BARAK-8 SAMs and 16 Ashms each & shall have a MF-STAR radar as well. Essentially making them pocket Kolkata class destroyers at only 1/5^th the cost of a full scale destroyer. We should concentrate on building such vessels to offset the numerical advantage the PLAN has in terms of destroyers etc.

SA'AR 6 Class corvettes

Breaking the Stranglehold of Military bases, indebted states and military assets that the Chinese have started building around us will not be easy. The present Indian Government has begun to put some of the pieces required to break the string into place, India will need to use all her assets from cultural ties to financial support and military prowess to ensure the string is broken and stays broken . Reclaiming our Ocean from Interlopers needs to be turned into a national goal.