Monday, 17 February 2020

MY 0.02 ON THE HAPPENINGS IN THE DEFENCE SPHERE TODAY-PART 2


1)      SSKs TO BE PRIORATIZED BEFORE CVNs.
-          GOOD MOVE, THIS IS SOMETHING I HAD BEEN BATTING FOR A LONG TIME.

-          WILL HELP THE IN REPLAN CAPEX, THE $20BN ESTIMATED COST OF THE CVN WOULD HAVE LEFT NO MONEY FOR OTHER PURCHASES IN THE IMMEDIATE.


-          THE PENINSULA COMMAND PLAN WILL LIKELY TAKE AWAY THE NEED OF A THIRD CARRIER  BY ALLOCATING BOTH OPERATIONAL CBGS TO AN OCEANIC COMMAND WHILE LAND BASED FIGHTER AIRCRAFT CAN PROVIDE RAPID AIR COVER TO ANY NAVAL FORCE IN THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA.

-          MORE SSKs WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE FAVOUR OF THE INDIAN NAVY IN ANY FUTURE CONFLICT IN WAYS A CV COULD NOT, IN BOTH THE 1965 & 71 WARS THE IN HAD TO SPEND INORDINATE ASSETS GUARDING CVS FROM OPFOR SSKs. HAVING A LARGE MODERN FORCE OF SSKs ALONGWITH A LARGE FLEET OF SUBMARINE HUNTING CGS AND AIRCRAFT COULD HELP US MAINTAIN SUPERIOROTY UNDER THE SURFACE.


-          IN VIEW OF THE BANGLADESH, INDONESIA AND PAKISTAN NAVIES MOVING AHEAD WITH SUBMARINE ACQUISISTON PLANS IT IS IMPERATIVE THE NUMBER OF MODERN SSKS IN THE IN KEEPS PACE TO MAINTAIN OUR DOMINANCE.
-          THE IMPETUS ON REDUCING COST MAKES IT MOST LIKELY THE SUBMARINE SELECTED FOR P75I WILL MOST LIKELY BE EITHER THE SCORPENE OR THE AMUR AS THE SCORPENE SHOULD BE ABLE TO USE IT’S EXISITNG BASE OF SUPPLIER TO REDUCE PRODUCTION COSTS & MATCH HORNS WITH THE  RUSSIAN AMUR SERIESWHICH  IS POSSIBLY THE CHEAPEST OF THE COMPETITORS.

2)      ATHOS ARTILLERY GUN PRODUCTION WITH BHARAT FORGE(THOUGH OTHER MEDIA MENTIONED OFB)
-          NOT A POSITIVE GIVEN THAT BHARAT FORGE ALREADY HAS CLEARED INDIAN ARMY TRIALS WITH THE BHARAT-52 155/52 GUN.

-          THIS INDICATES THAT THE INDIAN ARMY HAS LIKELY CHOSEN THE ATHOS OVER THE BHARAT -52 ON ACCOUNT OF IT’S LIGHTER WEIGHT AT 13 TONNES COMPARED TO 15 FOR THE KSSL GUN.


-          WOULD ALSO INDICATE THIS PURCAHE IS BEING UNDERTAKEN WITH ECONOMIC COSTS & GEOPOLITICAL OBJECTIVES WRT THE INDIA ISRAEL EQUATION IN MIND.

-          THE ONLY POSITIVE HERE IS THAT IT WILL GIVE BABA KALYANI A CHANCE TO PROVE HIS CLAIM THAT HE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD ONE ARTILLERY GUN EVERY 2ND DAY.GIVE KSSL A CHANCE TO COMPLETELY UPSTAGE THE OFB AS THE PERMIER 155/52GUN FACTORY IN INDIA.

-          LIKELY LINES UP THE MOUNTED ARTILLERY COMPETITON INTO A TWO HORSE RACE BETWEEN THE BHARAT FORGE 155/52 GUN & THE ATMOS2000 WHICH IS ON OFFER IN A JV WITH KSSL.

3)      TRANCHE PURCHASE OF FIGHTER AIRCRAFT
-          INDICATES EITHER G2G IMPORTS WHICH NEGATE ANY MAKE IN INDIA COMPONENT OR PRODUCTION AT A FACILITY THAT ALREADY EXISTS BECAUSE IT WILL NOT BE FINANCIALLY VIABLE FOR ANY MANUFACTURER TO BUILD AN ECOSYSTEM IN INDIA WITHOUT THE CONFIRMATION OF FUTURE TRANCHES.

-          THIS BASICALLY CONFIRMS THAT THE FUTURE MMRCA IS MOST LIKELY TO BE THE RAFALE AS DASSAULT HAS ALREADY ACQUIRED A FACILITY WHERE IT HAS ALREADY BEGUN PRODUCTION OF SOME PARTS OF RAFALE AS CONFIRMED BY MEDIA A FEW DAYS AGO.



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