AGNI Missiles "More than what meets the eye"

Agni-V Launch Press Release Photo

First the basics, what is and ICBM and how does it differ from an IRBM. An ICBM as defined by WIKIPEDIA is” An intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is a ballistic missile with a range of more than 5,500 kilometers (3,400 mi)” while an IRBM is “an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) is a ballistic missile with a range of 3,000–5,000 km (1,865–3,100 miles)”.India Started its quest for a declared IRBM capability with the Birth of the IGMDP on July 22^nd 1983 and the AGNI program started along with it. The first technology demonstrator version of the AGNI was tested in 1989 from the interim test range at Chandipur on sea in Orissa. The AGNI –II and the AGNI-I are the two versions of this missile that have currently been operationally deployed by the armed forces in a declared capacity with maximum declared ranges of 3,000Km and 750Km respectively. The Agni-II is operational with the 335 Missile group at Secundrabad while the Agni-I is operational with the 334 Missile Group also at Secundrabad.

The program was further expanded to include two new Missiles called the AGNI-III and the AGNI-V in the late 2000’s. The first successful test of the AGNI-III missile took place on the 12^th of April 2007 with subsequent successful tests on the 7^th of May 2008 and February 7^th 2010 the missile was declared successfully inducted into the armed forces in June 2011 and a missile group is currently being raised to utilize these missiles. The SFC has also conducted a successful user test of the AGNI-III with the test of an operational SFC missile on the 21^st of September 2012.The AGNI-V for its part was first tested on 19^th April 2012 and was declared to be an ICBM with a maximum range of 5,800Km.

Now that we’re done with the basics let’s move on to the interesting stuff in the two Tables below I have provided a short self-explanatory analyses of the AGNI-III and V with contemporary ICBM’s and IRBM’s.

COMPARISON OF AGNI SERIES WITH CONTEMPORARY IRBM'S & LRBM's
Missile	Weight	Height	Diameter	warhead weight	Reported Range	Engines	Country
AGNI-III	48,000Kg	17.0Mt	2Mt	2500kg	3,000Km	2-Stage Solid Fuel	India
AGNI-V	50,000Kg	17.5Mt	2Mt	1500Kg	5800Km	3-stage solid fuel	India
Jericho -II	26,000Kg	14.0Mt	1.56Mt	1000Kg	5000Km?	2 stage solid fuel	Israel
SS-20 "Saber"	37,100Kg	16.5Mt	1.8Mt	750Kg approx	5500Km	2 stage solid fuel	Soviet Union
BM25 Musudan	20,654Kg	12.0Mt	1.5Mt	1000Kg	4000Km	Single Stage Liquid	DPRK
S3	25,800Kg	13.8Mt	1.5Mt	1000Kg	3500Km	2 stage solid fuel	France
DF-21	14,700Kg	10.7Mt	1.4Mt	500-750Kg	3,000Km	2 stage solid fuel	China
Poseidon C3	29,200Kg	10.4Mt	1.9Mt	500-1000Kg	4,600Km	2 stage solid fuel	U.S.A

Two BM25 Musudan missiles on the 65 KWP anniversary parade, 10 October 2010

 Intermediate-range ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead RSD-10 Pioneer. It was deployed by the Soviet Union from 1976 to 1988. NATO reporting name was SS-20 Saber. It was withdrawn from service under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Ukrainian Air Force Museum in Vinnitsa.

 The DF-21D Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM)

Notice how the AGNI IRBM and LRBM seem to be much larger and heavier than any of their contemporaries around the world, that my friends indicates that these missiles carry far more fuel than declared with a potential for far greater ranges. For example a comparably modern Chinese DF-21 Road mobile IRBM carries only 14,700Kg of fuel compared to the AGNI-III’s 48,000Kg while achieving the same range. Similarly an Israeli Jericho-II IRBM carries nearly 20,000Kg less fuel while matching the range of an AGNI-III. on further comparison we see that all of the comparable IRBM’s and LRBM’s deployed in the world today have comparable characteristics except for the AGNI’s that seem to stick out like sore thumbs(Please note that I have not compared the AGNI-III or V to the Pakistani Missiles because there is no Pakistani missile comparable). The AGNI’s carry a lot more fuel and are bigger than their brethren please note that for determining range correctly we also have to factor in the warhead weight and type of propellant used, I have assumed here that the propellant used in the AGNI must be at least as developed as the one used by the DF-21 or the Jericho. Also the warhead weight is derived from Wikipedia only. However all said and done the AGNI series still looks to be quite unique in this segment. Now let us compare the AGNI series with Full fledged ICBM’s.

COMPARISON OF AGNI SERIES WITH CONTEMPORARY ICBM'S
Missile	Weight	Height	Diameter	warhead weight	Reported Range		Engines	Country
AGNI-III	48000Kg	17.0Mt	2Mt	2500kg	3,000Km		2-Stage Solid Fuel	India
AGNI-V	50,000Kg	17.5Mt	2Mt	1500Kg	5800Km		3-stage solid fuel	India
Minuteman -3	35,300Kg	18.2Mt	1.7Mt	260Kg(single W87)	13,000Km		3-stage solid fuel	U.S.A
Peacekeeper	96,750Kg	21.8Mt	2.3Mt	260x10Kg (10 MIRV w87)	9600Km		First two stages solid fuel top stage Liquid fuel	U.S.A
TOPOL-M	47,200Kg	22.7Mt	1.9Mt	1000-1500Kg?	11,000Km		3-stage solid fuel	Russia
RS-24 “Yars”	49,000Kg	20.9Mt	2.0Mt	800-1000Kg?(4xMIRV approx 250Kg each)	10.500Km		3-stage solid fuel	Russia
DF-41	30,000Kg	15Mt	2.0Mt	1000-1500Kg?	14,000Km		3-stage solid fuel	China
DF-31	46,000Kg	13Mt	2.25Mt	750-1000Kg?	8,000Km		3-stage solid fuel	China

The Agni series of Missiles fits in perfectly with this second group, the problem being that these are all missiles with far more range and capability than the declared intent of the Agni’s. Here in this group we have the Minuteman III a 13,000Km range monster that is today the mainstay of the American land based strategic missile systems, The TOPOL-M an 11,000Km beast that fulfils the same task for the Russians and the long arm of the Chinese military the DF-41 rounds of the trio with a reported range of 14,000Km. Looking through the comparison chart one can see that even in this group the AGNI’s are the heftiest when it comes to Total weight at launch but the shortest when it comes to range. Now the only factor that stands out as restricting the range of the AGNI’s is the warhead weight, the AGNI-III has by far the heaviest warhead of the group weighing in at a whopping 2500Kgs compared to the more sedate 1500Kgs of its sibling that compares very favorably with the “Big Boys”. However this weight is that of a conventional warhead filled with high explosive. With a Nuclear device this should be much lower. If we assume that the Indian Nuclear weapons program is at least as developed as the American program was in the eighties(yes I’m giving them a thirty year lead on us) we should still be able to build warheads such as the W71,W62(with mark-12 reentry vehicle) and W85 which respectively weigh 1290kg,500Kg and 400kg.Which should mean that the payload is going to be a lot lighter for a missile with even three MIRV warheads of the W62 category with approximately the same kind of reentry vehicle.

TOPOL-M

Minuteman-III

DF-41

Another factor that could come into play for the reduced range (however unlikely) is that the AGNI series have incredibly inefficient engines that burn fuel at twice the rate of contemporary missiles. However in such a case the velocity of the missile should be a lot more than it’s contemporaries as well to compensate for the much larger quantity of exhaust gases and increased thrust of the engine. Even in such a case we see that as per the publicly available reported stats of the first AGNI V test in April 2012 the missile is believed to have travelled 5000Km approximately in a span of 1130 seconds i.e. achieving an average velocity of 4.24km/sec or around 4424.78/340.29 Mach = 13 Mach (disputable since the AGNI flies at an altitude of 100Km and velocity of sound taken is at sea level) , news reports also indicate that the AGNI V attained a velocity of up to 7,000mtrs/sec or around 20.5mach .similarly the Chinese DF-41 has an average velocity of 10-25Mach as well this also corresponds to the average velocity of all well known Missiles. Hence it is not the engines either.

I believe that for once shrewd and prudent decisions have been taken in our Ministry of defense and what we have in the AGNI III and AGNI V are quite possibly Full-Fledged ICBM’s masquerading as IRBM’s.Please note that all information used in this analyses has come from WIKIPEDIA and GOOGLE also as the exact thickness of the missile cylinder is unknown for all cases I have assumed that almost the entire launch weight shall be the Fuel weight. I rest my case!