BRAHMASTRA- Making a K-15 ASBM

This article is intended to explore the possibility of developing the K-15 into a submarine launched Anti-shipping ballistic missile. I believe this can be achieved and that once completed it will provide the Indian Naval services with a true “Brahmastra” a massive unstoppable Area denial weapon. It will be even more effective than the much touted DF-21D due to the launch platform being a submarine and hence hidden till the moment of launch. I shall try and explore both the Promise and the practical possibility of such a weapon system in this article.

Scenario-it is a balmy morning in early 2022 and following the breakup of negotiations over tawang with the Chinese the PLAN “Shi Lang” Battle group steams its way into the southern Indian Ocean as part of a naval offensive against the Indian navy. At the heart of this battle group is the “Liaoning” the PLAN carrier, she is protected against aerial strikes by her complement of J-15 “Flying Shark” Fighters which provide CAP over the carrier and her escorts of three Sovremenny destroyers to take on surface threats and four type 052C destroyers providing a formidable SAM cover to the group as well as four 054A frigates and a single 093 class SSN screening the seas three hundred kilometers ahead of the battle group. The Indian Navy is ordered to decapitate this group in a single decisive strike with minimal losses in ships and equipment and the decision to use the “Brahmastra” is finalized.

Within minutes a coded message was sent to the second ARIHANT class SSBN on patrol in the southern Bay of Bengal only 600km from the PLAN fleet and six K-15 missiles soon broke the surface and arched southwards towards the “Liaoning”. Travelling at Hypersonic velocities the six missiles closed the gap in a matter of minutes, the HQ-9 systems of the Type 052C fired furiously trying to hit the warheads as they arched down from the sky, two warheads were hit but then the sea shook as the Liaoning was thrown backwards by the massive force of a thousand kilogram unitary warhead exploding on impact upon its flight deck while a second hit the superstructure midships. The third warhead exploded in midair 200feet to the right between two sovremenny destroyers the force of the blast causing the entire superstructure of both vessels to collapse while breaking in half a 054 close to these vessels. The fourth fell directly on top of a Type 052C breaking the ship into two halves and blowing massive holes in two adjacent Frigates with the force of the blast and gutting the superstructure of another 052 a few hundred feet away.

When the smoke cleared two sovermenny’s and three 054A’s had sunk apart from two 052s, the Liaoning itself was sinking fast, for all practical intents and purposes PLAN CBG “Shi Lang” was no more”.

The practical project-

Now that we have indulged ourselves and enjoyed the scenario presented above let us come to the practicality of creating such a missile. Can we do it? Is it feasible to develop the K-15 into an ASBM? Let us look at the pieces required to assemble this jigsaw. An ASBM is basically a Regular ballistic missile updated to have a Very small CEP and an ability to change course during flight based upon real time updates. An ASBM system in the very basics consists of the following pieces.

1)      The missile

2)      The sensor array to track ships

3)      Real time Data Analysis and interpretation systems and software.

Putting the pieces together

The K-15 or BO-5 launch on 27/01/13

The missile-The development of the K-15 began sometime in the late 1990’s and has been flight tested up to its full flight range numerous times, as well as from underwater launch platforms. Standing 10mt tall with a launch weight of only 6-7 tonnes the K15 was always designed as a very compact SLBM, but with a mere 750km range it always was somewhat a misnomer of an SLBM providing very little practical strategic strike ability against any target deep in the Chinese Hinterland, The K-15 however is perfect for use as an ASBM. It is stealthy and can be launched form a submarine relatively close to its target thereby reducing flight distance and reaction time. It is also guided till the target and equipped with a very maneuverable reentry vehicle hence is a perfect candidate for in flight navigation updates. It already has a very small single digit CEP which indicates a very high accuracy and an ability to target relatively small objects like a ship in the open ocean.

The sensor array-The key to all this is the IRNSS or the Indian regional satellite navigational system, this system once operational shall be the primary system providing geopositional information to the Missile and launch platforms. it shall consist of 7 satellites in a geostationary orbit over the IOR supported by ground stations on the mainland. Being geostationary shall make it relatively safe as the satellites do not have to overfly any hostile nations.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/af/IRNSS_Architecture.PNG/800px-IRNSS_Architecture.PNG

In itself the IRNSS can only guide and we will still need a whole battery of imaging and mapping satellites to keep an eye on any ships transiting into and around the IOR, we have this part of the puzzle in place somewhat with RISAT 1 and RISAT 2 which will be able to provide near real time updates to ground controllers and handlers about hostile shipping in the IOR. However both these satellites are in sun synchronous orbit which means that they are not always over the IOR, RISAT 1 for example orbits over India 14 times in 24 hours. What we need are a couple of geostationary SAR satellites that can provide real time updates via secure data links to their ground stations.SAR in itself can provide RADAR surveillance over a large swath of territory however we will still need satellites with Electro optical sensors to provide more detailed data in real time along with over the horizon radar and UAV’s.Some of this gap is filled by the CARTOSAT series. Another addition shall be ELINT satellites listening to the huge amount of electronic chatter generated by a carrier’s flight operations. The OTH Radar or X-band Radar is another game changer which provides Very long range detection of enemy fleets and missiles. It was first reported by the tribune in 2010 that India was looking for this asset however how far we got to actually getting it is unknown. This asset is required as it can provide real time radar data for thousands of kilometers, for comparison please note that the Israeli Green pine RADAR we now deploy has a range of only 500km.

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2010/20100607/main5.htm

FBX-T OTH also known as the Raytheon AN/TPY-2 radar in Israel with a massive 1,000km range

The persistent coverage provided by RADARS and satellites is augmented by UAV’s and maritime surveillance aircraft for a more detailed and clear picture of hostiles. The manned aircraft in question is undoubtedly going to be the P8i, the unmanned platform in question is presently the Heron and the searcher 2 UAV’s operated by the IN presently, however this will have to be upgraded to a more persistent real time 24x7 reconnaissance ability in the near future.

3) Real time data analysis and interpretation systems and software- Much of this capability already exists as most of the satellites in question are already in operation, what remains is to expedite radically the rate at which data can be analyzed . This primarily depends on one thing only “Brute computing power” India has been at the forefront of many computing milestones in the recent past and systems like the PARAM 500 will no doubt play an important role in the same.

Items crucial for the terminal guidance phase of the missile are missile borne SAR (synthetic aperture radar, MMW (millimeter wave radar) and imaging infrared sensors, however little information about Indian efforts on the same is available in the public sphere. And hence i shall not comment on the same.

However all said and done the claim of single digit CEP and terminal hit guidance for the K-15 indicate that these are already in place.

In addition to this as the K-15 already is a quasi-ballistic missile flying through the atmosphere for most of its flight duration and guided at the same time I believe that the DRDO scientists have already gotten around the problem of electromagnetic interference caused by superheated plasma formation around the missile body during flight, this is a major achievement and it took the Chinese scientists working on the DF-21D a long time to master it.

All in all I’d like to conclude by saying that the tech required for a nascent ASBM already exists within the nation what remains is for it to be operationally deployed, that again remains a matter of policy not of analysis.

As always all opinions expressed are mine solely and all information is from open sources only.

The Navy's new missile

On the 8^th of January Mr. Shiv Aroor of livefist blog reported that the Indian Navy was looking for new medium range missiles to augment its existing arsenal, the basic characteristics as mentioned in the full tender here http://tenders.gov.in/viewtenddoc.asp?tid=del539136&wno=1&td=TD  are

Purpose- To be deployed on surface warships for offensive combat against other surface warships.

Range- 120km (minimum)

Weight- 1000Kg maximum

Warhead weight- 100kg minimum

Speed- Greater than or equal to 0.9 Mach at an altitude of less than 20m.

RCS- low radar cross section of 0.5-1 sqm

This post is intended to discuss the various missiles that fit the requirements and try to provide a short comparison to see which fits the basic parameters best. Products are being compared from Europe the Americas, Russia and Korea only; since RCS for most missiles is not available from open sources we shall not be comparing the same.

The basic missiles that fit this criterion are

Missile	Country	Range(km)	Weight(Kg)	Warhead weight(Kg)	Speed
NSM	Norway	185+	410Kg	125Kg	High Subsonic
Kh-35	Russia	130	520kg	145Kg	0.8Mach
RBS-15	Sweden	250	800kg	200kg	Subsonic
Harpoon	U.S.A	124	691Kg	221Kg	864kmph
Otomat/Teseo	Italy	180+	770Kg	210Kg	1100Kmph
Exocet	France	180	670Kg	165Kg	315m/sec
Hae Sung	S.Korea	150	718Kg	unspecified	Mach 0.85

1)      NAVAL STRIKE MISSILE(Norway)

Undoubtedly one of the most modern missiles in this category the Naval Strike Missile's is a product from Norway’s Kongsberg Defence systems, the initial serial production contract was signed in June 2007 and the missile came into production in . The same has been selected by the Norwegian and polish navies till date for their requirements with  the Norwegian deliveries having already begun and the polish deliveries planned for 2013-2016.The NSM is also the base for the Future JSM(joint strike missile) that is being developed as an anti-shipping missile to be carried by the F-35 Lightning II.

 USP= the USP of this missile has to be the fact that it is by far the most modern anti ship missile to have entered service with any navy the world over. Also the advanced marine Infrared seeker it carries helps it to correctly identify and target even stealthy ships.

2) Kh-35

The “Kayak” or the “Harpoonski” is the most widely selling anti-ship missile in the Russian arsenal. First reported by the western media in 1983, this is a very versatile weapon with multiple surface, subsea, air and land launched variants. Initially developed for the export market it has also come into extensive use with the Russian military itself.

It is currently in use with the Russian, Indian, Algerian, Iraninan and Vietnamese naval services.

USP- at 500,000$ a piece probably one of the cheapest anti-ship missiles available in large quantities of the shelf now. Also the support and maintenance base for it already exists in India.

3) RBS-15

This Swedish product is an evolutionary design and its pedigree can be traced all the way back to the RB08 of the 1960’s. However make no mistake the RBS-15 MK3 is a beast of a missile carrying a 200km warhead for an estimated range of up to 250km.The Mk3 has been in production since 2004 and is in operation with the Swedish, Finnish, and German and polish naval services.

USP- undoubtedly the range, with a 250km reported range the MK-3 has the longest legs of all the missiles on the list giving whichever navy using it the chance to fire first.

4) Harpoon

One of the most successful anti- shipping missiles ever made, the AGM-84 harpoon first came into American service in 1977 and has been a mainstay of America and its allies ever since. The missile on offer is the Block 2D version of the Harpoon and carries with it the veritable legacy and pedigree of a missile that has proved its mettle in active combat more than once. The harpoon is currently in use with the military forces of approximately 30 nations worldwide, India has also zeroed I on the air launched AGM-84 version of the missile for the P8-I patrol aircraft.

USP- the combat heritage of this weapon is unmatched by any other missile on the list except for maybe the exocet.also in any weapons deal the Americans are always the 200lbs gorilla you cannot hope to ignore.

5) Otomat

The Otomat missile program first began in 1967 and at the time it was the first European missile to use turbojet propulsion instead of the rocket propulsion in vogue those days. The name Otomat comes from an amalgamation of the two companies that took upon themselves the development of this missile jointly i.e. the Italian OTO-Melara and the French Matra corporations. It finally came into service with the Italian navy in 1976; it has since been adopted by the naval forces of another 11 nations including the Bangladesh navy from next door.

USP- the mid course data correction which can make the missile execute an up to 200degree turn bringing all missiles in a salvo to a particular target, and the special warhead design that causes the explosion to occur only after the missile has entered into the target’s ship’s hull and direct the majority of the explosive force towards the bottom of the vessel are particular points to note.

5) Exocet

The Exocet is one of the two missiles in this list to have been used in active combat and the only one here to have struck and disabled a destroyer class warship. First deployed as the MM38 in the 1970’s by the French Naval service it has now grown to encompass an entire family of air, surface and submarine launched weapons and has been adopted by the naval services of approximately 35 nations till date. The version believed to be on offer is the MM40 Block 3 that has an estimated range of 180km with a warhead weighing 165kilograms.

The Exocet first made its mark in modern warfare when two missiles fired by Dassault Breguet Super Etendard aircraft of the argentine naval serves struck and fatally disabled the HMS Sheffield and the merchant ship “Atlantic conveyor” during the first Falklands war. An Exocet was also fired from an improvised land based launcher at the HMS Glamorgan by the Argentine forces causing extensive damage to the vessel. The Pakistani Navy deploys the Exocet from its mirages and Atlantic aircraft and its Agosta submarines, the Indian navy has already chosen the MM40 as the missile for its scorpenes.

USP- tested in war, already approved by the naval command for use on board our latest submarines and the long standing relationship we’ve had with France.

Now after the established players in the Indian Missile race I’d like to mention the dark horse that may yet leave it's mark.

1)      Hae sung

The Korean Hae sung a relatively modern weapon it has only been operationally deployed since 2006 on the Korean KDX-II and KDX-III destroyers. Very little is known about this weapon system due to its relative modernity and the fact that no one but the Koreans has it.

So which missile will come to us? I do not know going by the parameters we can clearly see that the RBS-15 stands heads and shoulders above its contemporaries when it comes to range but is unproven in combat, combat heritage is something both the harpoon and the exocet can lay claim to more than any other missile on the list. While the Kh-35 is dirt cheap in missile terms and the NSM is the most modern and the only one here that can claim to be able to target stealth ships. This post was only intended to put forward the variety of choices nothing more.

As always all information and pictures are from open sources freely available on the internet only.

Given the almost daily turmoil over religion in India i decided to revisit secularism and ask myself the question Is India Secular?
I dare say no, for in a truly secular nation every second official document will not require you to state your religion, for in a truly secular state laws will be governed by a common code and not by different codes for different religions, for in a truly secular nation the government will not form or fund any body related to any religion, for in a truly secular state the government will not support any form of religious pilgrimage and neither shall it impede anyone from undertaking one using their own personal means, for in any truly secular state religious bodies shall carry no measure of political power within themselves and shall confine themselves to matters theocratic only.
we remain secular only in letter while successive governments work more and more to erode that secularism and divide the nation further in terms of religion. "Akbar the great" had a more secular administration than any government we have had in the recent past i would say.

The Kumbh mela is far more than just another "religious pilgrimage" for it represents one of the last extant great migrations of mankind, every 12 years since as far as written human history can remember humans have come to the confluence of the Ganges, Yamuna and the almost mythical Saraswati to bathe in the holy confluence and wash away the sins of a lifetime.Remember when you see it that it is not just religion but a facet of human civilizational evolution that has seen human civilization grow from the small agarian communities we once were to the globally connected networked civilization we are now!

AGNI Missiles "More than what meets the eye"

Agni-V Launch Press Release Photo

First the basics, what is and ICBM and how does it differ from an IRBM. An ICBM as defined by WIKIPEDIA is” An intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is a ballistic missile with a range of more than 5,500 kilometers (3,400 mi)” while an IRBM is “an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) is a ballistic missile with a range of 3,000–5,000 km (1,865–3,100 miles)”.India Started its quest for a declared IRBM capability with the Birth of the IGMDP on July 22^nd 1983 and the AGNI program started along with it. The first technology demonstrator version of the AGNI was tested in 1989 from the interim test range at Chandipur on sea in Orissa. The AGNI –II and the AGNI-I are the two versions of this missile that have currently been operationally deployed by the armed forces in a declared capacity with maximum declared ranges of 3,000Km and 750Km respectively. The Agni-II is operational with the 335 Missile group at Secundrabad while the Agni-I is operational with the 334 Missile Group also at Secundrabad.

The program was further expanded to include two new Missiles called the AGNI-III and the AGNI-V in the late 2000’s. The first successful test of the AGNI-III missile took place on the 12^th of April 2007 with subsequent successful tests on the 7^th of May 2008 and February 7^th 2010 the missile was declared successfully inducted into the armed forces in June 2011 and a missile group is currently being raised to utilize these missiles. The SFC has also conducted a successful user test of the AGNI-III with the test of an operational SFC missile on the 21^st of September 2012.The AGNI-V for its part was first tested on 19^th April 2012 and was declared to be an ICBM with a maximum range of 5,800Km.

Now that we’re done with the basics let’s move on to the interesting stuff in the two Tables below I have provided a short self-explanatory analyses of the AGNI-III and V with contemporary ICBM’s and IRBM’s.

COMPARISON OF AGNI SERIES WITH CONTEMPORARY IRBM'S & LRBM's
Missile	Weight	Height	Diameter	warhead weight	Reported Range	Engines	Country
AGNI-III	48,000Kg	17.0Mt	2Mt	2500kg	3,000Km	2-Stage Solid Fuel	India
AGNI-V	50,000Kg	17.5Mt	2Mt	1500Kg	5800Km	3-stage solid fuel	India
Jericho -II	26,000Kg	14.0Mt	1.56Mt	1000Kg	5000Km?	2 stage solid fuel	Israel
SS-20 "Saber"	37,100Kg	16.5Mt	1.8Mt	750Kg approx	5500Km	2 stage solid fuel	Soviet Union
BM25 Musudan	20,654Kg	12.0Mt	1.5Mt	1000Kg	4000Km	Single Stage Liquid	DPRK
S3	25,800Kg	13.8Mt	1.5Mt	1000Kg	3500Km	2 stage solid fuel	France
DF-21	14,700Kg	10.7Mt	1.4Mt	500-750Kg	3,000Km	2 stage solid fuel	China
Poseidon C3	29,200Kg	10.4Mt	1.9Mt	500-1000Kg	4,600Km	2 stage solid fuel	U.S.A

Two BM25 Musudan missiles on the 65 KWP anniversary parade, 10 October 2010

 Intermediate-range ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead RSD-10 Pioneer. It was deployed by the Soviet Union from 1976 to 1988. NATO reporting name was SS-20 Saber. It was withdrawn from service under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Ukrainian Air Force Museum in Vinnitsa.

 The DF-21D Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM)

Notice how the AGNI IRBM and LRBM seem to be much larger and heavier than any of their contemporaries around the world, that my friends indicates that these missiles carry far more fuel than declared with a potential for far greater ranges. For example a comparably modern Chinese DF-21 Road mobile IRBM carries only 14,700Kg of fuel compared to the AGNI-III’s 48,000Kg while achieving the same range. Similarly an Israeli Jericho-II IRBM carries nearly 20,000Kg less fuel while matching the range of an AGNI-III. on further comparison we see that all of the comparable IRBM’s and LRBM’s deployed in the world today have comparable characteristics except for the AGNI’s that seem to stick out like sore thumbs(Please note that I have not compared the AGNI-III or V to the Pakistani Missiles because there is no Pakistani missile comparable). The AGNI’s carry a lot more fuel and are bigger than their brethren please note that for determining range correctly we also have to factor in the warhead weight and type of propellant used, I have assumed here that the propellant used in the AGNI must be at least as developed as the one used by the DF-21 or the Jericho. Also the warhead weight is derived from Wikipedia only. However all said and done the AGNI series still looks to be quite unique in this segment. Now let us compare the AGNI series with Full fledged ICBM’s.

COMPARISON OF AGNI SERIES WITH CONTEMPORARY ICBM'S
Missile	Weight	Height	Diameter	warhead weight	Reported Range		Engines	Country
AGNI-III	48000Kg	17.0Mt	2Mt	2500kg	3,000Km		2-Stage Solid Fuel	India
AGNI-V	50,000Kg	17.5Mt	2Mt	1500Kg	5800Km		3-stage solid fuel	India
Minuteman -3	35,300Kg	18.2Mt	1.7Mt	260Kg(single W87)	13,000Km		3-stage solid fuel	U.S.A
Peacekeeper	96,750Kg	21.8Mt	2.3Mt	260x10Kg (10 MIRV w87)	9600Km		First two stages solid fuel top stage Liquid fuel	U.S.A
TOPOL-M	47,200Kg	22.7Mt	1.9Mt	1000-1500Kg?	11,000Km		3-stage solid fuel	Russia
RS-24 “Yars”	49,000Kg	20.9Mt	2.0Mt	800-1000Kg?(4xMIRV approx 250Kg each)	10.500Km		3-stage solid fuel	Russia
DF-41	30,000Kg	15Mt	2.0Mt	1000-1500Kg?	14,000Km		3-stage solid fuel	China
DF-31	46,000Kg	13Mt	2.25Mt	750-1000Kg?	8,000Km		3-stage solid fuel	China

The Agni series of Missiles fits in perfectly with this second group, the problem being that these are all missiles with far more range and capability than the declared intent of the Agni’s. Here in this group we have the Minuteman III a 13,000Km range monster that is today the mainstay of the American land based strategic missile systems, The TOPOL-M an 11,000Km beast that fulfils the same task for the Russians and the long arm of the Chinese military the DF-41 rounds of the trio with a reported range of 14,000Km. Looking through the comparison chart one can see that even in this group the AGNI’s are the heftiest when it comes to Total weight at launch but the shortest when it comes to range. Now the only factor that stands out as restricting the range of the AGNI’s is the warhead weight, the AGNI-III has by far the heaviest warhead of the group weighing in at a whopping 2500Kgs compared to the more sedate 1500Kgs of its sibling that compares very favorably with the “Big Boys”. However this weight is that of a conventional warhead filled with high explosive. With a Nuclear device this should be much lower. If we assume that the Indian Nuclear weapons program is at least as developed as the American program was in the eighties(yes I’m giving them a thirty year lead on us) we should still be able to build warheads such as the W71,W62(with mark-12 reentry vehicle) and W85 which respectively weigh 1290kg,500Kg and 400kg.Which should mean that the payload is going to be a lot lighter for a missile with even three MIRV warheads of the W62 category with approximately the same kind of reentry vehicle.

TOPOL-M

Minuteman-III

DF-41

Another factor that could come into play for the reduced range (however unlikely) is that the AGNI series have incredibly inefficient engines that burn fuel at twice the rate of contemporary missiles. However in such a case the velocity of the missile should be a lot more than it’s contemporaries as well to compensate for the much larger quantity of exhaust gases and increased thrust of the engine. Even in such a case we see that as per the publicly available reported stats of the first AGNI V test in April 2012 the missile is believed to have travelled 5000Km approximately in a span of 1130 seconds i.e. achieving an average velocity of 4.24km/sec or around 4424.78/340.29 Mach = 13 Mach (disputable since the AGNI flies at an altitude of 100Km and velocity of sound taken is at sea level) , news reports also indicate that the AGNI V attained a velocity of up to 7,000mtrs/sec or around 20.5mach .similarly the Chinese DF-41 has an average velocity of 10-25Mach as well this also corresponds to the average velocity of all well known Missiles. Hence it is not the engines either.

I believe that for once shrewd and prudent decisions have been taken in our Ministry of defense and what we have in the AGNI III and AGNI V are quite possibly Full-Fledged ICBM’s masquerading as IRBM’s.Please note that all information used in this analyses has come from WIKIPEDIA and GOOGLE also as the exact thickness of the missile cylinder is unknown for all cases I have assumed that almost the entire launch weight shall be the Fuel weight. I rest my case!