MY 0.02 ON THE HAPPENINGS IN THE DEFENCE SPHERE TODAY-PART 2

1)      SSKs TO BE PRIORATIZED BEFORE CVNs.

-          GOOD MOVE, THIS IS SOMETHING I HAD BEEN BATTING FOR A LONG TIME.

-          WILL HELP THE IN REPLAN CAPEX, THE $20BN ESTIMATED COST OF THE CVN WOULD HAVE LEFT NO MONEY FOR OTHER PURCHASES IN THE IMMEDIATE.

-          THE PENINSULA COMMAND PLAN WILL LIKELY TAKE AWAY THE NEED OF A THIRD CARRIER  BY ALLOCATING BOTH OPERATIONAL CBGS TO AN OCEANIC COMMAND WHILE LAND BASED FIGHTER AIRCRAFT CAN PROVIDE RAPID AIR COVER TO ANY NAVAL FORCE IN THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA.

-          MORE SSKs WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE FAVOUR OF THE INDIAN NAVY IN ANY FUTURE CONFLICT IN WAYS A CV COULD NOT, IN BOTH THE 1965 & 71 WARS THE IN HAD TO SPEND INORDINATE ASSETS GUARDING CVS FROM OPFOR SSKs. HAVING A LARGE MODERN FORCE OF SSKs ALONGWITH A LARGE FLEET OF SUBMARINE HUNTING CGS AND AIRCRAFT COULD HELP US MAINTAIN SUPERIOROTY UNDER THE SURFACE.

-          IN VIEW OF THE BANGLADESH, INDONESIA AND PAKISTAN NAVIES MOVING AHEAD WITH SUBMARINE ACQUISISTON PLANS IT IS IMPERATIVE THE NUMBER OF MODERN SSKS IN THE IN KEEPS PACE TO MAINTAIN OUR DOMINANCE.

-          THE IMPETUS ON REDUCING COST MAKES IT MOST LIKELY THE SUBMARINE SELECTED FOR P75I WILL MOST LIKELY BE EITHER THE SCORPENE OR THE AMUR AS THE SCORPENE SHOULD BE ABLE TO USE IT’S EXISITNG BASE OF SUPPLIER TO REDUCE PRODUCTION COSTS & MATCH HORNS WITH THE  RUSSIAN AMUR SERIESWHICH  IS POSSIBLY THE CHEAPEST OF THE COMPETITORS.

2)      ATHOS ARTILLERY GUN PRODUCTION WITH BHARAT FORGE(THOUGH OTHER MEDIA MENTIONED OFB)

-          NOT A POSITIVE GIVEN THAT BHARAT FORGE ALREADY HAS CLEARED INDIAN ARMY TRIALS WITH THE BHARAT-52 155/52 GUN.

-          THIS INDICATES THAT THE INDIAN ARMY HAS LIKELY CHOSEN THE ATHOS OVER THE BHARAT -52 ON ACCOUNT OF IT’S LIGHTER WEIGHT AT 13 TONNES COMPARED TO 15 FOR THE KSSL GUN.

-          WOULD ALSO INDICATE THIS PURCAHE IS BEING UNDERTAKEN WITH ECONOMIC COSTS & GEOPOLITICAL OBJECTIVES WRT THE INDIA ISRAEL EQUATION IN MIND.

-          THE ONLY POSITIVE HERE IS THAT IT WILL GIVE BABA KALYANI A CHANCE TO PROVE HIS CLAIM THAT HE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD ONE ARTILLERY GUN EVERY 2^ND DAY.GIVE KSSL A CHANCE TO COMPLETELY UPSTAGE THE OFB AS THE PERMIER 155/52GUN FACTORY IN INDIA.

-          LIKELY LINES UP THE MOUNTED ARTILLERY COMPETITON INTO A TWO HORSE RACE BETWEEN THE BHARAT FORGE 155/52 GUN & THE ATMOS2000 WHICH IS ON OFFER IN A JV WITH KSSL.

3)      TRANCHE PURCHASE OF FIGHTER AIRCRAFT

-          INDICATES EITHER G2G IMPORTS WHICH NEGATE ANY MAKE IN INDIA COMPONENT OR PRODUCTION AT A FACILITY THAT ALREADY EXISTS BECAUSE IT WILL NOT BE FINANCIALLY VIABLE FOR ANY MANUFACTURER TO BUILD AN ECOSYSTEM IN INDIA WITHOUT THE CONFIRMATION OF FUTURE TRANCHES.

-          THIS BASICALLY CONFIRMS THAT THE FUTURE MMRCA IS MOST LIKELY TO BE THE RAFALE AS DASSAULT HAS ALREADY ACQUIRED A FACILITY WHERE IT HAS ALREADY BEGUN PRODUCTION OF SOME PARTS OF RAFALE AS CONFIRMED BY MEDIA A FEW DAYS AGO.

https://theprint.in/defence/india-begins-manufacturing-parts-for-rafale-fighter-jets-in-nagpur/363702/

MY 0.02 ON THE HAPPENINGS IN THE DEFENCE SPHERE IN INDIA TODAY- PART 1

1)      PENINSULA THEATRE COMMAND TO BE FORMED.

-GOOD MOVE THAT BASICALLY TURNS THE ENTIRETY OF PENINSULAR INDIA INTO ONE THEATRE OF BATTLE.

-THIS WILL LIKELY INDICATE THIS COMMAND WILL MAKE USE OF THE PENINSULA   AS ONE GIANT AIRCRAFT CARRIER WITH IAF & IN GROUND BASED COMBAT AIRCRAFT LIKE P8I & THE RECENTLY INDUCTED BRAHMOS EQUIPPED SU30 SQUADRON AT THANJAVUR FORMING THE TIP OF A SPEAR.

-THIS THEATRE WILL LIKELY DOMINATE BOTH THE ARABIAN SEA & BAY OF BENGAL USING LAND BASED ASSETS BACKED UP BY A LARGE FLEET OF CONVENTIONAL SUBMARINES, CORVETTES & POSSIBLY A FEW OLDER FRIGATES AND DESTROYERS. OLDER LPDS LIKE THE JALASHWA WILL LIKELY BE DEPUTED TO THIS COMMAND AS WELL.

-THIS COMMAND WILL ALSO LIKELY CONTROL THE COASTAL RADAR NETWORK &THE INVENTORY OF SHORE BASED ASCM LAUNCHERS WHICH WILL SERVE AS its EYES & IT’S SPEARS.

CHANGES THE WAY THE IN WILL GO TO WAR FROM ONE BASED ON THE SURFACE OF THE SEA TO ONE BASED ON THE SURFACE OF LAND AS WELL.

-THIS INDICATES THAT THE FUTURE PURCHASES OF THE IN GEARED TOWARDS THIS COMMAND WILL BE CHEAPER SHORTER RANGED SSKs & MISSILE ARMED CORVETTES.

- THIS ALSO POINTS TOWARDS AN OCEANIC COMMAND (INDO PACIFIC) COMING UP AS THE 2^ND IN COMMAND IN THE NEAR FUTURE WHICH WILL TAKE THE RESPONSIBILITY OF GUARDING THE SLOCs AND DISTANT FOREIGN OUTPOSTS LIKE ONE’S IN MAURITIUS & OMAN. THIS FORCE WILL LIKELY BE EQUIPPED WITH TWO CBGS COMPOSED OF THE BULK OF THE DDG ,FFG & REPLENISHMENT VESSLES  IN THE NEAR TERM ALONGWITH THE ENTIRETY OF THE IN SSBN & SSN FORCE.

2)      AIR DEFENCE COMMAND FOR INDIA COMING UP.

-GOOD MOVE THAT BASICALLY COMBINES MULTIPLE TIERS OF RADARS & SURFACE TO AIR INTERDICTION ASSETS INTO ONE NET. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN PARTIALLY REALIZED VIA THE IACCS NODES WHICH TIE MULTIPLE MILITARY & CIVILIAN RADAR INTO ONE NET &TAKES IT ONE STEP FURTHER BY PUTTING ALL SURFACE BASED INTERDICTION ASSETS FROM THE BMD UNITS TO THE SPAAG UNITS UNDER ONE COMMAND. LIKELY TO HELP CREATE A BETTER INTERCEPTION PACKAGE WITH OVERLAPPING ARCS OF FIRE.

-WHILE THE EARLIER IACCS & AFNET PLAN TIED TOGETHER PRIMARLY AIR FORCE DEFENSE RADARS WITH CIVILIAN RADAR THIS COMMAND WILL ALSO TIE INTO A VAST NETWORK OF RADARS OPERATED BY THE ARMY &THE NAVY LIKE THE EXCELLENT MFSTARS ON BOARD THE KOLKATA & OTHER DDGS TO HELP CREATE A MUCH MORE DETAILED PICTURE.

-SIMILARLY THIS COMMAND WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD A MUCH BETTER INTERCEPTION NETWORK UTILIZING ARMY ORGANIC SAM ASSETS & NAVAL SAM UNITS IN CONJUCTION WITH EXISITNG AIR FORCE SAM UNITS.

-THIS COMMAND WILL LIKELY ALSO BE THE HEADQUARTERS FOR A SPACE DEFENCE & A BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENCE CORPS.

3)      J&K TO BE SEPARATE THEATRE.

-     GOOD MOVE THAT LETS VARIOUS MILITARY UNITS IN JAMMU & KASHMIR BE FORMED INTO ONE INTEGRATED UNIT.

-      THIS WILL LIKELY REDUCE RESPONSE TIMES & ALLOW REQUIRED ASSETS TO REALLOCATED TO AREAS WHERE THEY ARE REQUIRED MUCH FASTER THAN THEY ARE TODAY. THIS COMMAND SHOULD BE ABLE TO SURGE TROOPS & EQUIPMENT QUICKLY IN AREAS WHERE REQUIRED WITHOUT HAVING TO GO THROUGH MULTIPLE COMMAND LAYERS.